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Daily Summary Warning - September 1st 2024
The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in
Asia-Pacific is still above average at 1.51 today (but falling) compared with
the typical month of September average of 1.39 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR)
is now (since 22nd April) at PR>1 so that large quakes are more
likely in the periods close to new and full moon. The activity in the last 2
weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been higher than average with M5+ almost every
day and three or more M6+ events every 2 weeks. Please check 48-hour hourly forecasts
for each area
Results from Yesterday 31st
August 2024- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):
Asia-Pacific: yesterday we observed a total of 4 events of M4+ and 3 events of M4.5.
Of these about 5 out of 7 events could
be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region
was low, and less than expected as our daily strength forecast indicated some
events in the M5+ level. We note that the Asian hotspots (M6+) during the
month of August were in Surigao, Kyushu, Taiwan, N. Japan/Russia – activity was
higher than expected
America: yesterday we observed a total of 8 events of M4+ and 0 event of
M4.5 with 1 event of M5+ (Off SC Chile – Coquimbo) with in this area during the
24-hour period. Of these, 9 of 9 events
could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region
was low to moderate and as expected. There were total of 29 ineffective forecasts
for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 24%).
Europe/Africa: - 2 x M4+ and 0 x M4.5 events were noted in this region during the
24-hour period, 1 of which could be identified with our hourly forecasts for
the day. So that activity was low and as expected. There were total of 22 ineffective
hourly forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 4%).
Forecast for Today:
Today 1st September 2024 (UTC/GMT), the overall
daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is high 42% and the M5+ stress
eccentricity is 2.2 (medium) which means widespread activity in the region
today. The lunar phase strength is 53% (high), so that M4+ to M5.5 + intensity
quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today
Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar)
today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (Med-hi N)/Medium S)), 1.1/58%(N)
55%(S)), Java (Medium, 0.0/38%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Low,
2.0/35%), Surigao/ Samar (Med-lo, 1.0/30%), Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (Medium,
0.0/39%), Baguio (Medium, 0.0/27%), Taiwan/Ryukyu/China (Med-hi, 0.6/41%),
Kyushu, Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 1.3/29%), E Honshu/ Tokyo
(Med-hi, 2.0/63%), Hokkaido/Kuril (High, 0.9/47%). For
September month we would normally expect high activity in S. Philippines
including Surigao, Gensan, Davao, Sulawesi, etc.
America: Activity has been less than average, recently with M4.5+ daily and
M6+ every 5 weeks. – low to moderate activity
most likely M4+ to M5+ today: S. Mexico, NC/SC Chile, NW Argentina, C/S.
Peru, W. Canada, Alaska, Gulf of California, Baja, S. Sandwich Isles, S.
Bolivia, Guatemala, Panama, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Ecuador,
Colombia.
Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M4.5+ - low activity today – Aegean, Albania., Algeria, Ascension Island, Atlantic, Azerbaijan,
Azores, Gulf of Aden, Saudi Arabia, C. Italy, Greece, Croatia, Cyprus, Serbia,
Germany, Iceland, Iran, Egypt, Djibouti, Tanzania, Congo.
Disclaimer: - As earthquake prediction is still in
its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be
guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization,
neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any
incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of
information posted herein. Copyright of all items in this earthtremors.org
web-site is with the author.