Posts

Disclaimer: – As earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization, neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of information posted herein.
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.

Daily Summary Warning - July 19th 2024

2024-07-19 00:00:00 Admin Daily Summary Warning

The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in Asia-Pacific is below average at 1.31 today compared with the typical month of July average of 1.34 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 22nd April) at PR>1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to new and full moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been falling recently with M5+ almost every day and one or more M6+ events every 6 weeks.

Results from Yesterday 18th July 2024- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):

Asia-Pacific: yesterday we observed a total of 6 events of M4+ and 4 events of M4.5 with 2 events of M5+ (Surigao and SW of Sumatra) and 1 event of M5.5+ (Izu isles).  Of these about 10 out of 13 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low to moderate-hi, and greater than expected as our daily strength forecast indicated some events in the M5+ level.

America: yesterday we observed a total of 7 events of M4+ and 1 event of M4.5 in this area during the 24-hour period.  Of these, 7 of 8 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low and as expected. There were total of 20 ineffective forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 29%).

Europe/Africa: - 0 x M4+ and 0 x M4.5 events were noted in this region during the 24-hour period, 0 of which could be identified with our hourly forecasts for the day. So that activity was low and as expected. There were total of 27 ineffective hourly forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 0%).

Forecast for Today:

Today 19th July 2024 (UTC/GMT), the overall daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is low 26% and the M5+ stress eccentricity is 2.9 (high) which means focussed activity in the region today. The lunar phase strength is 52% (high), so that M4+ to M5 + intensity quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today

Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar) today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (Med-lo N)/Medium S)), 2.0/31%(N) 43%(S)), Java (Med-lo, 0.0/21%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Med-lo, 0.3/27%), Surigao/ Samar (Med-lo, 0.7/26%), Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (Low, 0.9/25%), Baguio (Low, 1.0/26%), Taiwan/Ryukyu/China (Medium, 0.5/40%), Kyushu, Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 0.4/27%), E Honshu/ Tokyo (Medium, 1.2/37%), Hokkaido/Kuril (Medium, 0.0/28%)

America: Activity has been less than average, recently with M4.5+ daily and M6+ every 4 weeks.  – low activity most likely M4+ to M4.5+ today: S. Mexico, NC/SC Chile, NW Argentina, C/S. Peru, W. Brazil, Baja, Alaska, S. Sandwich Isles, S. Bolivia, Guatemala, Panama, Venezuela.

Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M4.5+ - low activity today –Albania, Atlantic, S. of Gibraltar, Morocco, Gulf of Aden, NE. Italy, Sicily, Greece, Crete, Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Macedonia, Iran, Tanzania, Zambia, Ethiopia, Djibouti.

Disclaimer: - As earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization, neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of information posted herein. Copyright of all items in this earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.