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Daily Summary Warning - August 11th 2024

The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in Asia-Pacific is below average at 1.32 today compared with the typical month of August average of 1.37 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 22^nd April) at PR>1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to new and full moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been steady recently with M5+ almost every day and one or more M6+ events every 6 weeks. Please check 48-hour hourly forecasts for each area

Results from Yesterday 10^th August 2024- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):

Asia-Pacific: yesterday we observed a total of 9 events of M4+ and 5 events of M4.5 with 1 event of M6+ (Sea of Okhotsk).  Of these about 11 out of 15 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low to high, and greater than expected as our daily strength forecast indicated some events in the M4.5+ level. Watch out for more activity in S. Kyushu – see 48-hr forecasts.

America: yesterday we observed a total of 4 events of M4+ and 0 event of M4.5 with in this area during the 24-hour period.  Of these, 1 of 4 events could be associated with our hourly forecasts. Overall, the activity in the region was low and less than expected. There were total of 37 ineffective forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 3%).

Europe/Africa: - 0 x M4+ and 2 x M4.5 events were noted in this region during the 24-hour period, 0 of which could be identified with our hourly forecasts for the day. So that activity was low and as expected. There were total of 25 ineffective hourly forecasts for this period (M4+ event/ forecast rate 0%).

Forecast for Today:

Today 11^th August 2024 (UTC/GMT), the overall daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is high 45% and the M5+ stress eccentricity is 2.7 (medium) which means widespread activity in the region today. The lunar phase strength is 44% (medium), so that M4+ to M5.5 + intensity quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today

Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar) today is for N/S Sumatra/ Nicobar/Myanmar (High N)/Med Lo S)), 0.6/54%(N) 37%(S)), Java (Med-lo, 1.0/33%), Gensan/ Davao/ S. of Phils. (Medium, 0.7/48%), Surigao/ Samar (Med-lo, 0.1/30%), Manila/Batangas/ Mindoro (Med-hi, 0.2/39%), Baguio (Medium, 0.0/35%), Taiwan/Ryukyu/China (Medium, 0.0/33%), Kyushu, Izu/Bonin isles (Med-Lo, 0.8/29%), E Honshu/ Tokyo (Medium, 2.0/62%), Hokkaido/Kuril (Med-hi, 0.7/42%)

America: Activity has been less than average, recently with M4.5+ daily and M6+ every 4 weeks.  – low activity most likely M4+ to M4.5+ today: Off E. Mexico, S. Mexico, NC/SC Chile, NW Argentina, C/S. Peru, W. Canada, Alaska, S. California, Baja, Off N. California, Windward Isles, Haiti, S. Sandwich Isles, S. Bolivia, Guatemala, Panama, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Ecuador, Colombia.

Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M4.5+ - low activity today –Algeria, Ascension Island, Atlantic, Azores, Gulf of Aden, Austria, S. Spain, C. Italy, Slovenia, Bosnia, Iran, Egypt, Tanzania, SW of Africa. Burundi, Malawi, Uganda.

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