Posts

Disclaimer: – As earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization, neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of information posted herein.
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.

Daily Summary Warning - October 12th 2025

2025-10-12 00:00:00 Admin Daily Summary Warning

The earthquake activity (M6+ eccentricity = imbalance) in Asia-Pacific is still above average at 1.45 today compared with the typical month of October average of 1.35 (note the lunar Phase Ratio (PR) is now (since 03rd May 2025) at PR<1 so that large quakes are more likely in the periods close to first quarter and last quarter phases of the moon. The activity in the last 2 weeks in Asia-Pacific region has been higher than average with M5+ almost every day and three or more M6+ events every 2 weeks. Please check 48-hour hourly forecasts for each area

Results from Yesterday 11th October 2025- 0hrs to 24hrs UTC):

Asia-Pacific: yesterday we observed a total of 31 events of M4+ in the region including 1 strong event (Phils (S. Surigao) M6.1) and 2 moderately strong (Phils (E of Davao) M5.5, and Kuril M5.8) as well as several M5+. Almost all the above events could be matched with our forecasts within a few hours.

America: yesterday we observed a total of 6 events of M4+, plus 1 x M5+ (Drake Passage and S. Sandwich Isles) and 1 x M5.5+ S. Sandwich Isles. Overall, the activity in the region was moderate as expected. Almost all events occurring could be related to the forecast events given within a few hours.

Europe/Africa: - Yesterday we observed a total of 8 events of M4+ (6x Ethiopia + Reykjanes Ridge and Jan Mayen Island) and 2 x M5+ (Ethiopia). Generally, there are fewer events in this part of the world which is seismologically less active. Also, due to the wide longitudinal spread the events appear to be less directly affected by earth’s rotational dynamics.

Forecast for Today:

Today 12th October 2025 (UTC/GMT), the overall daily M5+ probability in Asia- Pacific is medium 30%. The lunar phase strength is 48% (moderate), so that M4+ to M5+ intensity quakes are expected in Asia-Pacific today

Asia-Pacific: probability (2.0=max:M5+ stress transfer/ %= overall incl. lunar) today is for N./S. Sumatra (Medium 1.6/55%-55%), Surigao/Samar/Leyte/ Negros/Cebu (Med-Lo, 1.5 /37%), S. Surigao is most likely – 9-10hrs UTC (17-18hrs PHT) and 17to 21hrs UTC ( 1AM to 5am (13th) PHT); General Santos/Davao (Med-lo. 0.5/32%).  Japan (Kyushu, Izu, Bonin, Volcano Isles) 2.0, 38%. For October month we would normally expect high activity in Philippines, N. Japan and Indonesia.

America: Activity has been about average, recently with M4 to M5+ daily and M6+ every 3 weeks.  – low to moderate activity most likely M4+ to M5+ today: with duplicate or strong forecasts for S Mexico, Alaska, NC/SC. Chile, NW. Argentina, Colombia, Guatemala.

Europe/Africa: - most likely M4+ to M4.5+ - low activity today – W. Turkey, S. Greece, N. Iran

Disclaimer: - As earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization, neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of information posted herein. Copyright of all items in this earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.