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Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.
E Honshu March 2011 - Analysis (Pt 2)
Although it was noted that the E.Honshu area was in a continuing disturbed situation at the time of the M8.9 quake of 11th March it is difficult to say that the event could have been predicted accurately - even in hind sight. The author had made daily statistical computations of likelihood of magnitude 6 quakes in E.Honshu, which indicated that out of 12 sites under daily investigation in SE Asia, E.Honshu was the most likely to have an event of this magnitude on 22 out of 52 days on days leading up to the 11th March, including being most likely on 9th and 10th March. (This is significantly higher than average for the location over a long period) Thus in many ways a large quake at this time was not unexpected.