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Disclaimer: – As earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization, neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of information posted herein.
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.
Earthquake probabilities for New Zealand
The following are earthquake probabilities of quakes in each area based on the lunar day (for this website our convention starts with New Moon as day 7, First Quarter as day 14, Full Moon as day 21 and Last Quarter as day 28) North Island of New Zealand H 13,14 MH 8,9,16,17,20,21,25,26,28 ML 3,6,7,10,11,12,15,19,22-24 L 2,4,5,18,27,29,30 South of Island of New Zealand H 11,25,30 MH 3,6,7,13,18,19,22,28,29 ML 4,5,10,12,14,15,21,23,26,27 L 2,8,9,16,17,20,24 Key: VH = Very High H = High MH = Medium High ML = Medium Low L = Low If New Zealand is shown on Asia-Pacific hourly 48-hr calendar - for about xx hrs UTC it is necessary to preempt the event by 4 hrs for time zone difference (ie actually likely time at xx-4hrs UTC) as calculations were based on Indonesia. No stress analysis is yet available for this region, so that it is not possible to give reliable strength forecasts. Also it has been noted that in the past there is some correspondence between S Sumatra forecasts and North Island NZ events as well as between Java forecasts and S Island NZ events