Frequently Asked Questions
Disclaimer: – As earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization, neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of information posted herein.
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.
General Questions
– the moon (the tidal effect is about 2.21 x stronger than that of the sun)
– the sun
– the weather – this is mainly the differential pressure across tectonic plate boundaries
– past events strength
– past events direction
– a combination of above
– recurrence interval from previous events in the same locality
– the proximity to a tectonic plate boundary
– the proximity to a fault zone
– the direction of the tectonic plate boundary
– which side of the boundary is subducting
– the direction of the fault line
– the time of the month – this is lunar effect
– the time of year – this is solar effect
– the time of day – this is a combination of solar and lunar effect
– volcanoes – these probably release/ create tension in their neighbourhood
– mining
– nuclear explosions
– large asteroid strikes
– large space object coming close to earth
– polar shift
– fracking or other introduction of water into fault zones
– global warming – movement of large ice sheets
– large dams
– inundation of land mass by sea
– internal circulation of earth’s molten rock and magma
– the sun
– the weather – this is mainly the differential pressure across tectonic plate boundaries
– past events strength
– past events direction
– a combination of above
– recurrence interval from previous events in the same locality
– the proximity to a tectonic plate boundary
– the proximity to a fault zone
– the direction of the tectonic plate boundary
– which side of the boundary is subducting
– the direction of the fault line
– the time of the month – this is lunar effect
– the time of year – this is solar effect
– the time of day – this is a combination of solar and lunar effect
– volcanoes – these probably release/ create tension in their neighbourhood
– mining
– nuclear explosions
– large asteroid strikes
– large space object coming close to earth
– polar shift
– fracking or other introduction of water into fault zones
– global warming – movement of large ice sheets
– large dams
– inundation of land mass by sea
– internal circulation of earth’s molten rock and magma
Enter your username and password, then click Log In
Yes, but this is related to the days of the lunar month - not the calendar month
– this varies with the region so that strongest days in America may not be the strongest days in Asia-Pacific or Europe
– this is also cyclic so that there are periods when quakes are more frequent close to the full moon and new moon and other periods when they are more frequent close to the first and last quarters – these periods are referred to as PR>1 and PR<1 where PR stands for Phase Ratio.
– the Phase Ratio appears to vary with the angle of declination of the moon (and sun)
– there are also variations in lunar and solar effects due to the position of the moon relative to each location taken at 0hrs on each day – this variation corresponds to the vector sum of the sub-latitudes – probably also related to the angle that the related tectonic plate boundary makes with the line of transit – in this website, these strengths have been classified as high, med-hi, medium, fair and low
– this is also cyclic so that there are periods when quakes are more frequent close to the full moon and new moon and other periods when they are more frequent close to the first and last quarters – these periods are referred to as PR>1 and PR<1 where PR stands for Phase Ratio.
– the Phase Ratio appears to vary with the angle of declination of the moon (and sun)
– there are also variations in lunar and solar effects due to the position of the moon relative to each location taken at 0hrs on each day – this variation corresponds to the vector sum of the sub-latitudes – probably also related to the angle that the related tectonic plate boundary makes with the line of transit – in this website, these strengths have been classified as high, med-hi, medium, fair and low
– again this varies with location, region and probably with angle of the nearby tectonic plate boundary or fault zone
– the dynamic analysis is used to predict most likely active locations on an hourly basis, by comparing past events with the combined movement of sun and moon for each hour of the day.
– the dynamic analysis uses the relative acceleration of the sun and moon to the chosen locations on earth where quakes have occurred previously.
– there are times when the moon, or sun are moving away from the particular location or towards it and there are times when the movement changes from one direction to the other – it is the change in lunar/ solar movement that creates forces on the tectonic plates
-as an analogy one could consider the plates to be made of steel plates stuck on the outside of a balloon – and the sun and moon would be like magnets being moved across the plates. Then as a magnet passes from one side of the plate to the other it will tend to tip in one direction, but once the magnet has passed it will swing back to normal
– the dynamic analysis is used to predict most likely active locations on an hourly basis, by comparing past events with the combined movement of sun and moon for each hour of the day.
– the dynamic analysis uses the relative acceleration of the sun and moon to the chosen locations on earth where quakes have occurred previously.
– there are times when the moon, or sun are moving away from the particular location or towards it and there are times when the movement changes from one direction to the other – it is the change in lunar/ solar movement that creates forces on the tectonic plates
-as an analogy one could consider the plates to be made of steel plates stuck on the outside of a balloon – and the sun and moon would be like magnets being moved across the plates. Then as a magnet passes from one side of the plate to the other it will tend to tip in one direction, but once the magnet has passed it will swing back to normal
Based on point scoring related to multiple aspects including:
1) Lunar and solar motions
2) Probability of Recurrence
3) Location and Strength of Recent Events
4) Weather (less influence mainly)
1) Target Predictions for Magnitude 6+
2) Target Areas - Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, Taiwan
3) Based on Event Data from 1973 - Present
4) Selected Study Area - as above but including Pacific Regions from 90E to -170W and from -60S to +60N
NB - not yet including China, Thailand, Burma, Malaysia
1) Authors Research - based on historic statistical analysis over last 38 years of data
2) Number and Timing of Events - affected by phase of the moon
3) It is believed that declination of lunar orbit plays important role
4) Historic data has allowed construction of lunar phase calendar - see Lunar Calendar
5) Relative acceleration of sum and moon allow hourly foreca
1) The author has analyzed significant repetition of sequential event transfer to specific locations
2) Analysis carried out for single M6+ event transfer based on location only
3) Analysis carried out for preceding 5 events of M6+ and M5+ takes account of relative strengths
1) The author has analyzed numerous weather patterns related to events of M6+
2) It is contended that under certain conditions differential pressure across plate boundaries will play a significant role in triggering a quake
3) Typical situation occurs when MSLP isobars run parallel to subduction line with high pressure on subducting side