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Disclaimer: – As earthquake prediction is still in its infancy, the accuracy of information provided on this web-site cannot be guaranteed by the author, the web-site owner or the hosting organization, neither is any liability accepted by these persons or organizations for any incident or accident resulting out of actions taken by persons as a result of information posted herein.
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.
Copyright of all items in this Earthtremors.org web-site is with the author.
M6+ Earthquake Trend Americas 1973-2015
Note: this represents a rising trend of 1.3% per year over the 43 years period
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M6+ Earthquake Trend Asia Pacific 1973-2015
Note: this represents a rising trend of 0.9% per year over the 43 years period,
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48Hr Dynamic Forecast in the Philippines
Note that these forecasts should be read as supplementary to those for Asia-Pacific which relate to more recent data. The Philippine old data forecasts should mainly be considered when there is evidence of an event such as high stress (ie greater than 1.0 for Manila, Baguio, Gensan or Surigao) and or high probability from lunar factors. Locations in bold are most likely based on today's stress analysis but of course strengths are likely to be less - these depend on the percent for the day...
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Probability analysis in Asia-Pacific
[table id=6 /] The above Probability Analysis table shows results of stress analysis for Asia-Pacific based on the author's own algorithm. The table covers 13 regions including Japan (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kuril and Kyushu), Taiwan, Philippines (Manila, Baguio, General Santos and Surigao), and Indonesia (North Sumatra, South Sumatra, Java, Andaman, Nicobar). The analysis takes account of long term Probability Analysis and frequency of occurrence in each area as well as daily variation in weather...
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Earthquake Calendar for Europe - Year 2013
--> Click on the months in the Earthquake Calendar below to get links to more detailed forecasts Calendar for Europe and Africa year 2013 - UTC + 0hrs January February Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 January Lunar Dates: LQ 5, NM 11, FQ 18, FM 27 February Lunar Dates: LQ 3, NM 10, FQ 17, FM 25 March April Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su...
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Earthquake Calendar - Asia-Pacific - Year 2013
--> For more details of earthquake predictions and actual events, click on the respective months of the Earthquake Calendar below for Asia-Pacific in Year 2013 Calendar for Asia-Pacific year 2013 - UTC + 0hrs January February Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 January Lunar Dates: LQ 5, NM 11, FQ 18, FM 27 February Lunar Dates:...
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Earthquake Calendar for N/S America - Year 2013
--> Click on the months in the Earthquake Calendar below to get links to more detailed forecasts Calendar for N/S America year 2013 - UTC + 0hrs January February Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 January Lunar Dates: LQ 5, NM 11, FQ 18, FM 27 February Lunar Dates: LQ 3, NM 10, FQ 17, FM 25 March April Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Mo Tu...
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Some Method in the Madness
The method of prediction used in this web site is based mainly on correlation of earthquake data with lunar and solar orbits and to some extent on the stresses developed by recent events in the areas under scrutiny combined with statistical recurrence. There is also a minor component based on daily weather patterns as the differential pressure across plate boundaries can have some effect. Although long term statistical predictions of the likelihood of quakes in particular areas can be made,...
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Earthquake probabilities for New Zealand
The following are earthquake probabilities of quakes in each area based on the lunar day (for this website our convention starts with New Moon as day 7, First Quarter as day 14, Full Moon as day 21 and Last Quarter as day 28) North Island of New Zealand H 13,14 MH 8,9,16,17,20,21,25,26,28 ML 3,6,7,10,11,12,15,19,22-24 L 2,4,5,18,27,29,30 South of Island of New Zealand H 11,25,30 MH 3,6,7,13,18,19,22,28,29 ML 4,5,10,12,14,15,21,23,26,27 L 2,8,9,16,17,20,24 Key: VH = Very High H =...
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Volcanoes in Indonesia - Merapi
As can be seen, these charts need updating as they are now 7 years old - how time flies - not much to note on the comparison except that quake intervals seem to be fairly regular and independent of the volcanic activity. There has been another major eruption in Oct-Nov 2010 which caused significant casualties
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Volcanoes in the Philippines - Pinatubo
As can be seen, these charts need updating as they are now 7 years old - how time flies - but maybe interesting to note how large earthquake activity may be slightly depressed during periods of volcanic activity - note the Baguio M7.8 event of July 1990 that caused many casualties
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Volcanoes in the Philippines - Mayon
As can be seen, these charts need updating as they are now 7 years old - how time flies - but maybe interesting to note how large earthquake activity may be slightly depressed during periods of volcanic activity
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Volcanoes in the Philippines - Bulusan
As can be seen, these charts need updating as they are now 7 years old - how time flies - but maybe interesting to note how large earthquake activity may be slightly depressed during or following periods of volcanic activity (but not always unfortunately)
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E Honshu March 2011 - Analysis (Pt 3)
Statistics for East Honshu Analysis in Last 10 - 30 days before 11th March 2011 N.B. In the above figures, Priority Rank is lowest if most likely event.
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E Honshu March 2011 - Analysis (Pt 2)
Although it was noted that the E.Honshu area was in a continuing disturbed situation at the time of the M8.9 quake of 11th March it is difficult to say that the event could have been predicted accurately - even in hind sight. The author had made daily statistical computations of likelihood of magnitude 6 quakes in E.Honshu, which indicated that out of 12 sites under daily investigation in SE Asia, E.Honshu was the most likely to have an event of this magnitude on 22 out of 52 days on days...
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